Notice of proposed rulemaking. Consistent with its jurisdiction over swaps, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("Commission" or "CFTC") is proposing to further define the term "swap" to explicitly include event contracts, including those based on sports-, politics-, cultural-, and weather- related events (the…
AI Analysis
The CFTC has proposed amending 17 CFR part 1 to expressly include event contracts based on sports, political, cultural, and weather-related events within the Commodity Exchange Act definition of “swap.” The proposal is not yet binding, but it would materially strengthen the CFTC’s asserted federal jurisdiction over prediction markets and could subject affected platforms and intermediaries to the CFTC’s swaps framework rather than state gambling regulation if finalized.
Key dates
2026-10-19
The proposed rule is published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 66022 and the public comment period begins.
2026-11-18 Deadline
Comments on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking must be received by the CFTC.
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to inventory sports-, political-, cultural-, and weather-related event contracts offered, intermediated, traded, or supported by the organization and document the current legal classification of each product.
Firms may wish to assess whether affected activities could require CFTC registration, designated contract market or swap execution facility arrangements, swap data reporting, recordkeeping, customer-protection controls, business-conduct procedures, clearing or margin analysis, and applicable anti-manipulation and surveillance controls if the proposal is finalized.
Platforms and intermediaries may wish to map product design, settlement terms, pricing, transferability, trading venue, customer type, and liquidity arrangements against the proposed swap definition and identify products whose classification is uncertain.
Compliance teams may wish to monitor the separate CFTC treatment of casino-style gambling products and distinguish state- or tribally licensed sportsbook and casino wagers from market-traded event contracts; the companion treatment should not be assumed to apply to prediction-market products.
Affected firms may wish to prepare comments addressing the scope of “event contract,” treatment of secondary-market trading, jurisdictional overlap with state gambling authorities, implementation timing, and any operational or cost impacts before the November 18, 2026 deadline.
Legal and regulatory affairs teams may wish to track litigation and appeals concerning CFTC jurisdiction over prediction markets, because court developments could affect the interpretation or implementation of any final rule.
What changed
The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, RIN 3038-AF82, would further define “swap” to explicitly include specified event contracts, including contracts tied to sports, politics, cultural events, and weather. The CFTC describes these instruments as financial products commonly understood in the trade to be swaps and seeks to resolve perceived ambiguity over their classification and regulatory jurisdiction.
Compliance impact
Immediate compliance impact is limited because this is a proposal rather than a final rule. If finalized substantially as proposed, the classification of affected event contracts as swaps could create significant licensing, venue, reporting, recordkeeping, market-conduct, surveillance, clearing, margin, and customer-protection implications for prediction-market operators and their counterparties, while reinforcing the CFTC’s position that federal derivatives law governs these products.
Advanced notice of proposed rulemaking. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("Commission" or "CFTC") is issuing an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking regarding section 2(c)(2)(D) of the Commodity Exchange Act ("CEA" or "Act") to provide notice and seek public comment on its intent to develop and establish…
AI Analysis
The CFTC is seeking comment on an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking that would establish fit-for-purpose rules for retail crypto asset transactions under CEA section 2(c)(2)(D) and create a purpose-built Crypto Asset Market registration category. The proposal is preliminary and does not impose immediate new obligations, but it signals a potential federal framework for leveraged, margined, or financed crypto trading, including venue, intermediation, custody, clearing, margin, proof-of-reserves, reporting, and operational-risk requirements.
Key dates
2026-10-13
Federal Register publication date for the ANPRM, published as 91 FR 64811 and document number 2026-20888.
2026-12-14 Deadline
Deadline for submitting comments to the CFTC on Regulation CTX, Regulation CAM, and the interpretation and implementation of CEA section 2(c)(2)(D).
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to determine whether current or planned retail crypto products could constitute transactions covered by CEA section 2(c)(2)(D), including products described as spot, margin, leveraged, financed, perpetual, or otherwise structured to defer delivery.
Firms should consider mapping current customer agreements, funding arrangements, custody models, delivery controls, and liquidation processes against the CFTC's preliminary positions on offers and actual delivery.
Prospective venues may wish to assess the potential CAM operating model, including registration perimeter, governance, listing standards, market surveillance, position controls, execution, recordkeeping, cyber and system safeguards, proof-of-reserves, and customer-asset arrangements.
FCMs, IBs, DCOs, custodians, and leverage providers should consider identifying the registrations, permissions, capital, segregation, margin, clearing, insolvency, and operational dependencies that a CAM structure could create.
Crypto businesses may wish to prepare comments addressing the scope of section 2(c)(2)(D), the definition and practical test for actual delivery, treatment of fully paid open transactions, permissible crypto assets, and the allocation of responsibilities among CAMs, FCMs, DCOs, and leverage providers.
Firms should monitor whether the CFTC follows the ANPRM with a formal proposed rule and should not treat the ANPRM as creating immediate registration, margin, reporting, or conduct obligations.
Affected firms may wish to preserve evidence of product design, delivery capability, customer disclosures, surveillance controls, and legal analysis in anticipation of supervisory or enforcement scrutiny under the CFTC's stated interpretation of section 2(c)(2)(D).
What changed
The CFTC has published ANPRM RIN 3038-AF80, 91 FR 64811, concerning proposed Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets. Regulation CTX would seek to clarify when section 2(c)(2)(D) applies to crypto asset transactions, including the meaning of covered offers, actual delivery, and actual delivery of fully paid open transactions. Regulation CAM would create a crypto asset market subcategory of designated contract market registration under 17 CFR part 38, supported by related amendments or requirements under 17 CFR parts 1, 38, and 39.
Compliance impact
The ANPRM is not itself binding and does not presently require registration or operational changes. Its potential impact is nevertheless substantial for platforms and intermediaries offering retail crypto leverage, margin, or financing because a subsequent rule could bring those activities within a structured CFTC regime with requirements covering market access, customer protection, margin, custody, clearing, surveillance, reporting, reserves, and operational resilience.
On October 9, 2026, the CFTC proposed amending 17 CFR 1.3 to expressly include event contracts, including sports-, politics-, cultural-, and weather-related contracts, within the definition of “swap.” The proposal would reinforce the CFTC’s position that these products fall within its exclusive Commodity Exchange Act jurisdiction, with potentially significant consequences for prediction-market operators, exchanges, and participants, although the CFTC states that it expects no new legal obligations beyond existing requirements.
Key dates
2026-10-09
CFTC announced publication of the NPRM concerning inclusion of certain event contracts in the definition of swap and identified a 30-day comment period beginning on Federal Register publication.
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to inventory event contracts by underlying event, settlement structure, customer type, and current legal classification, including whether each product is a binary option, another swap, a future, a security-based swap, or a casino-style gambling product.
Potential operators, DCMs, SEFs, registrants, trade associations, and affected customers should consider submitting written comments through Regulations.gov within 30 days after the NPRM is published in the Federal Register; the Federal Register publication date and resulting calendar deadline should be monitored because the CFTC release does not specify either date.
Firms may wish to assess whether current exchange, venue, customer-eligibility, market-surveillance, anti-manipulation, product-certification, disclosure, margin, reporting, and recordkeeping controls would support treatment of relevant contracts as swaps under existing CFTC requirements.
Operators currently relying on state licenses may wish to evaluate the potential need for DCM or SEF arrangements, CFTC registration, federal compliance infrastructure, and transitional management of overlapping state and federal obligations if the rule is finalized.
DCMs and SEFs may wish to review product-listing governance against CEA section 5c(c)(5)(C), applicable core principles, and 17 CFR 40.2(c), including whether particular contracts are readily susceptible to manipulation or involve gaming or other activity contrary to the public interest.
Legal and tax teams may wish to keep CEA classification separate from federal tax and information-reporting analysis, which the NPRM states will continue to depend on the Internal Revenue Code, Treasury regulations, and IRS guidance.
Firms may wish to monitor the separate CFTC action concerning casino-style gambling products and assess how the two rulemakings interact for products near the boundary between event contracts and gambling wagers.
What changed
The NPRM, RIN 3038-AF82, would add proposed 17 CFR 1.3(Swap)(2)(i)(G): “Event contracts, including those based on sports-, politics-, cultural, and weather-related events.” The CFTC relies on several existing swap-definition provisions, including CEA section 1a(47)(A)(i), (ii), (iv), and (vi), covering options, transactions dependent on events with potential financial, economic, or commercial consequences, instruments commonly known as swaps, and combinations or permutations of covered instruments.
Compliance impact
The proposal is not currently binding, and the CFTC preliminarily states that it would not create new reporting, recordkeeping, disclosure, or other substantive obligations because existing CEA requirements already apply where event contracts are swaps. Its practical significance is nevertheless high for prediction-market businesses because finalization could establish a uniform federal regulatory perimeter, require use of CFTC-regulated venues for covered products, increase infrastructure and registration costs for some operators, and intensify conflicts with state gambling regimes.
The CFTC published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPRM) on October 5, 2026, seeking input on a future framework for retail crypto asset transactions under Section 2(c)(2)(D) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and on a purpose-built crypto asset market category within designated contract market registration. This is not a proposed or final rule and creates no immediate new obligations, but it signals potential federal regulation of leveraged, margined, or financed retail crypto activity and a new exchange framework; independent market commentary generally views the initiative as focused on the financing and derivatives layer rather than ordinary unleveraged spot trading.
Key dates
2026-10-05
CFTC published Release 9307-26 announcing the ANPRM and beginning consultation on a potential framework for crypto asset transactions and crypto asset markets.
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to determine whether current or planned products involve retail commodity transactions under CEA Section 2(c)(2)(D), particularly where crypto assets are leveraged, margined, financed, or embedded in derivatives or perpetual-style products.
Firms should consider mapping their customer-facing crypto activities, order execution arrangements, custody model, financing terms, liquidation processes, conflicts, market-abuse controls, and consumer disclosures against the issues identified in the ANPRM.
Potential commenters may wish to prepare submissions addressing the scope of CTXs, the proposed treatment of spot versus financed transactions, appropriate registration and supervisory requirements, and the operational feasibility of a crypto asset market category.
Designated contract markets and prospective applicants should consider assessing whether existing governance, surveillance, listing, liquidity, technology, and risk-management controls could support a future crypto asset market registration framework.
Firms may wish to preserve evidence of existing controls and industry practices that they regard as effective, because the CFTC is specifically seeking information on crypto-specific contextual guidance and compliance practices.
Compliance teams should monitor the Federal Register for the ANPRM publication and calculate the 60-day comment period from that publication date rather than from the October 5 press release.
Firms should continue complying with currently applicable CEA, CFTC, securities, commodities, consumer-protection, AML, and state requirements because the ANPRM does not replace or suspend existing obligations.
What changed
The CFTC has opened a consultation process and is considering future rules referred to in market commentary as Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions (CTX) and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets (CAM). The ANPRM seeks views on preventing abusive practices in crypto asset markets and CTXs, providing crypto-specific context on compliance requirements and industry practices that the Commission considers best practices, and codifying a subcategory of designated contract market registration for crypto asset markets.
Compliance impact
Immediate legal impact is limited because the publication is an ANPRM rather than a proposed or final rule. Strategic and supervisory significance is high for retail crypto businesses, particularly those offering leverage, margin, or financing, because the CFTC signals possible preventive conduct requirements, consumer protections, and a dedicated market-registration framework intended to address abusive practices before enforcement occurs.
Reopening of comment period. On May 6, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission published in the Federal Register a notice of proposed rulemaking ("NPRM"), titled Privacy Act Regulations, to amend its Privacy Act regulations to exempt the CFTC-59 Insider Risk Program Records System of Records from certain…
Why this matters
This is a notice reopening the comment period for a proposed rulemaking (NPRM) by the CFTC to amend Privacy Act regulations. The proposal seeks to exempt the CFTC-59 Insider Risk Program Records System from certain Privacy Act provisions to protect insider risk investigations.
Notice of proposed rulemaking. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("Commission" or "CFTC") proposes to amend its regulations for swap execution facilities ("SEFs") to remove the requirement for SEFs to offer an order book for swap transactions that are not subject to trade execution requirement under section…
AI Analysis
On August 26, 2026, the CFTC proposed amending 17 CFR 37.3(a)(2) to require SEFs to offer an Order Book only for Required Transactions, rather than for all swaps listed for trading. The proposal would make Order Books optional for Permitted Transactions, codify the approach in No-Action Letter No. 25-24, and give SEFs greater discretion to use execution methods suited to episodic and less-liquid swaps.
Key dates
2026-08-26
The CFTC proposed the amendment in 91 FR 55030, RIN 3038-AF79, and opened the public-comment period.
2026-09-25 Deadline
Public comments on the proposed rule must be received by the CFTC.
Suggested considerations
SEF compliance teams should distinguish Required Transactions from Permitted Transactions under 17 CFR 37.9 and confirm that any planned platform changes preserve Order Book and RFQ functionality for Required Transactions.
SEFs may wish to inventory Permitted Transaction products, execution protocols, customer usage, liquidity, pre-trade transparency, surveillance dependencies, and annual Order Book operating costs before deciding whether to retain, modify, or discontinue optional Order Book functionality.
SEFs relying on CFTC No-Action Letter No. 25-24 should assess whether their current implementation remains consistent with the proposal and should monitor the eventual final rule rather than treating the NPRM as binding law.
SEF applicants may wish to reassess platform design and launch costs because the proposal could remove the need to build an Order Book solely for Permitted Transactions.
Swap dealers, major swap participants, and other active SEF users should assess whether removal of an optional Order Book could affect execution practices, liquidity access, pre-trade transparency, best-execution analysis, or internal trading procedures for Permitted Transactions.
Interested firms should consider submitting comments to CFTC docket CFTC-2026-1882, including quantified technology, staffing, infrastructure, surveillance-integration, and market-impact data, by September 25, 2026.
Compliance teams should continue applying CEA section 2(h)(8), 17 CFR 37.9, and applicable Part 43 reporting obligations unless and until a final rule changes them.
What changed
The proposed amendment would revise 17 CFR 37.3(a)(2) so that a SEF must, at a minimum, offer an Order Book as defined in 17 CFR 37.3(a)(3) for Required Transactions as defined in 17 CFR 37.9(a)(1). It would remove the obligation to offer an Order Book for Permitted Transactions, defined in 17 CFR 37.9(c)(1) as transactions that do not involve a swap subject to the CEA section 2(h)(8) trade-execution requirement. SEFs could continue offering Order Books for Permitted Transactions voluntarily and could use any execution method permitted under 17 CFR 37.9(c)(2).
Compliance impact
This is a proposed rule and does not itself create an immediate new obligation or remove the existing regulatory text. If finalized, SEFs could reduce costs and redesign execution workflows for Permitted Transactions, but firms may face changes in available pre-trade transparency and execution protocols; the CFTC identifies possible transparency and price-discovery effects as the principal adverse considerations and regards the expected direct compliance cost of removal as de minimis.
Request for comment. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC" or "Commission") is seeking public responses to this Request for Comment to better inform its understanding and oversight of derivatives markets in compute.
AI Analysis
The CFTC published a Request for Comment on August 21, 2026, seeking empirical and data-driven views on whether and how compute derivatives—particularly contracts referencing rented AI-compute capacity, GPU capacity, inference tokens, and perpetual futures—could be listed and overseen. The publication does not create new binding requirements, but it signals that potential listings will be assessed under existing Commodity Exchange Act requirements concerning manipulation, benchmark reliability, surveillance, customer protection, AML, and financial integrity; independent market coverage describes this as an early regulatory step linked to proposed GPU-rental futures and a potential October 5, 2026 launch by CME Group and Silicon Data, subject to regulatory review.
Key dates
2026-08-21
Request for Comment published in the Federal Register.
2026-10-20 Deadline
Comments are due, calculated as 60 days after Federal Register publication.
2026-10-05
Reported target date for CME Group and Silicon Data to list two compute or GPU-rental futures contracts, subject to regulatory review; this date is not established by the CFTC Request for Comment.
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to determine whether the firm has relevant empirical data on compute prices, volumes, counterparties, supplier concentration, utilization, capacity commitments, or bilateral contract terms that could support a CFTC submission.
Potential DCM and SEF applicants should consider mapping proposed contract specifications and settlement methodologies against CEA section 5(d), Core Principles 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, and 11, 17 CFR 38.150-38.160, 38.200-38.201, 38.250-38.258, 38.500, and 38.603, and the guidance in 17 CFR part 38 appendices B and C.
Firms developing or contributing data to a compute index should consider documenting data provenance, publication practices, governance, auditability, contributor concentration, observation-window controls, fallback mechanisms, and safeguards against manipulation by capacity providers.
FCMs, introducing brokers, and other intermediaries may wish to assess whether existing BSA/AML, KYC, onboarding, suitability, disclosure, and market-conduct controls address the risks identified for compute derivatives, including opaque bilateral markets and geopolitically sensitive supply.
Market participants may wish to submit comments by the applicable deadline, clearly referencing RIN 3038-AF77 and the Request for Comment on the Listing of Compute Derivatives Contracts, while avoiding unnecessary personal or confidential business information because submissions will be publicly posted.
Firms tracking product development should consider monitoring any subsequent DCM self-certification or Commission-approval filing, as the consultation itself does not authorize trading or postpone a proposed listing.
What changed
No final rule, approval, prohibition, or new compliance obligation was introduced. The CFTC is requesting comment on compute cash-market size, liquidity, transparency, supplier concentration, fungibility, benchmark methodology, deliverable supply, manipulation risks, surveillance feasibility, customer protection, heightened BSA/AML and KYC issues, retail protections, and the design and risks of perpetual compute futures.
Compliance impact
Immediate impact is limited because the publication is nonbinding, but it provides a significant signal about the CFTC's likely scrutiny of benchmark integrity, manipulation susceptibility, surveillance access, customer protection, and AML controls before compute contracts can be listed. Firms involved in a proposed market may face substantial evidentiary and control-design expectations under existing DCM, SEF, FCM, and intermediary rules, particularly where reference data is private, concentrated, or controlled by compute providers.
Notice of proposed rulemaking. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("Commission" or "CFTC") is proposing several amendments to its registration requirements for certain commodity pool operators ("CPOs") and commodity trading advisors ("CTAs") to reduce duplicative and overlapping regulation and reflect inflation…
AI Analysis
The CFTC proposed amendments to Regulations 4.13 and 4.14 that would create a formal registration exemption for SEC-registered investment advisers operating pools limited to qualified eligible persons and specified accredited investors, with a related CTA exemption. The proposal would also double the Small Pool Exemption’s aggregate gross capital-contributions ceiling from $400,000 to $800,000 while retaining the 15-participant limit, reducing potential duplicative SEC-CFTC obligations if adopted.
Key dates
2026-08-21
Proposal published in the Federal Register for public comment.
2026-10-05 Deadline
Written comments are due 45 days after Federal Register publication.
Suggested considerations
Firms should assess each pool’s investor eligibility against the natural-person and non-natural-person requirements in proposed Regulation 4.13(a)(4), including the distinctions between qualified eligible persons and accredited investors.
RIAs should review offering documents, subscription procedures, investor representations, and transfer controls to support the required reasonable belief at investment or conversion that all participants satisfy the applicable eligibility criteria.
Compliance teams may wish to confirm that each relevant pool’s interests qualify for a Securities Act exemption and that U.S. marketing practices comply with the proposed restriction, including the Rule 506(c) exception.
Eligible advisers should map Form PF obligations and determine whether existing SEC filings would satisfy the proposed condition that Form PF be filed where required.
Firms should prepare to file or update electronic exemption notices with the NFA and maintain the proposed Regulation 4.13 annual affirmation, recordkeeping, disclosure, and statutory-disqualification representations.
Managers operating both registered and exempt pools should assess the proposed Regulation 4.13(e)(2) communications and redemption-right requirements and identify whether any existing participants would require notice before a pool is operated as exempt.
Small-pool operators should model eligibility using the proposed $800,000 aggregate threshold while continuing to monitor the 15-participant-per-pool limit and unchanged contribution exclusions.
Managers relying on Staff Letter 25-50 should preserve evidence of current compliance and evaluate transition implications because the CFTC preliminarily proposes to supersede that relief if the rule is finalized.
What changed
Proposed Regulation 4.13(a)(4) would exempt an SEC-registered investment adviser from CPO registration for qualifying pools if the pool interests are exempt from Securities Act registration and are not publicly marketed in the United States, except that the marketing restriction would not apply to pools offered under SEC Rule 506(c) of Regulation D.
Compliance impact
This is a proposed rule rather than a currently binding amendment, but it could materially reduce CPO and CTA registration and duplicative compliance burdens for RIAs serving sophisticated investors. Until adoption, firms should not assume the proposed exemptions or $800,000 threshold are available and should continue relying on existing registrations, exemptions, or Staff Letter 25-50 only where all current conditions are satisfied.
The CFTC proposed amending Regulation 37.3(a)(2) to eliminate the requirement that swap execution facilities (SEFs) offer an order book for permitted transactions—swaps not subject to the Commodity Exchange Act section 2(h)(8) trade-execution mandate. The proposal would codify relief already reflected in the CFTC’s 2025 no-action position, giving SEFs greater discretion over execution methods while preserving order-book-related requirements for required transactions.
Key dates
2026-08-20
CFTC announced and published the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking seeking amendments to Regulation 37.3(a)(2).
Suggested considerations
SEFs should assess which listed products and transaction categories are permitted transactions under Regulation 37.9(c)(1), distinguishing them from swaps subject to the CEA section 2(h)(8) trade-execution requirement.
SEFs should consider whether to submit comments within 30 days after the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking is published in the Federal Register, including evidence on order-book usage, execution quality, liquidity, market transparency, and operational costs.
SEFs should review their rulebooks, execution protocols, product listings, disclosures, surveillance coverage, and client documentation to determine what changes would be needed if the proposal is finalized.
SEFs relying on the CFTC’s existing no-action relief should confirm the relief’s scope and conditions and maintain controls ensuring that required transactions continue to satisfy applicable execution requirements.
Swap dealers, major swap participants, and other market participants should identify whether counterparties or venues may discontinue order-book functionality for permitted transactions and evaluate impacts on liquidity access, best execution or execution-quality processes, recordkeeping, and internal trading procedures.
Compliance teams should monitor the Federal Register for the actual publication date, comment deadline, final-rule date, and any changes to the proposed effective date; the August 20, 2026 press release does not itself establish the comment deadline.
What changed
The proposed rule would remove the Regulation 37.3(a)(2) requirement for an SEF to offer an order book for permitted transactions. A permitted transaction is defined in Regulation 37.9(c)(1) as a transaction that does not involve a swap subject to the CEA section 2(h)(8) trade-execution requirement; such transactions are not required to be executed on an SEF or designated contract market and may use any execution method offered by the SEF.
Compliance impact
The proposal is deregulatory for SEFs because it would remove a mandatory trading-system functionality for permitted transactions and allow greater flexibility in execution design. It does not reduce the requirement for required transactions to use the applicable SEF execution framework, so misclassification of a transaction could create execution-compliance and enforcement risk; market commentary also indicates the proposal would formalize the practical relief previously provided by CFTC No-Action Letter 25-24.
On August 19, 2026, the CFTC issued a request for comment on the potential listing and oversight of derivatives linked to compute, including perpetual compute futures. The publication is a prerule information-gathering exercise, not an authorization or binding rule, but it signals that the CFTC is assessing whether compute can support regulated derivatives markets and is focusing on liquidity, benchmark integrity, manipulation, and customer-protection risks as the market develops.
Key dates
2026-08-19
CFTC issued Release 9286-26 and announced the request for comment on listing compute derivatives contracts.
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to identify whether the firm has direct or indirect exposure to compute cash markets, proposed compute futures, perpetual futures, benchmark administration, clearing, brokerage, or related trading activity.
Firms considering submitting comments should assess the CFTC questions concerning cash-market size and liquidity, contract specifications, price formation, benchmark representativeness, settlement and rollover mechanics, manipulation scenarios, customer protection, and the risks of perpetual contracts.
Potential contract venues and intermediaries should consider documenting how existing CFTC requirements under the Commodity Exchange Act and 17 CFR Parts 1 and 38 could apply to product submission, exchange oversight, market surveillance, position management, reporting, risk management, and customer funds.
Trading and surveillance functions may wish to evaluate potential abusive strategies involving GPU capacity reservations, cloud allocation, data-centre outages, energy constraints, benchmark inputs, wash trading, spoofing, corners, squeezes, and manipulation of physical or reference markets.
Firms should monitor the Federal Register and Regulations.gov for the publication date, final comment deadline, any technical corrections, and subsequent CFTC guidance or contract-approval filings.
Market participants may wish to avoid treating the press release or request for comment as evidence that compute derivatives are already approved or that a reported exchange launch date is assured.
Governance teams may wish to assign ownership across legal, commodities compliance, market surveillance, model risk, technology risk, procurement, and business teams because compute derivatives would connect financial-market controls with operational characteristics of cloud and data-centre markets.
What changed
The CFTC opened a public consultation under RIN 3038-AF77 concerning compute cash markets and potential compute derivatives contracts. The request seeks information on market size, liquidity, contract design, market oversight, manipulation risks, customer protection, and perpetual compute futures, and is associated with potential amendments or application of the CFTC framework in 17 CFR Parts 1 and 38. It does not itself approve a compute futures contract, authorize an exchange to list one, impose new compliance obligations, or establish a final regulatory position.
Compliance impact
Immediate impact is limited because the publication creates no binding obligations and the CFTC’s supporting regulatory-review entry identifies it as a prerule action with no legal deadline. Strategic and supervisory significance is nevertheless material for firms planning compute derivatives: the CFTC is expressly examining manipulation, customer protection, liquidity, and perpetual-contract risks that could shape future listing decisions, surveillance expectations, contract terms, and market-access requirements.
The CFTC proposed amendments to 17 C.F.R. Part 4 that would create new CPO and CTA registration exemptions for certain SEC-registered investment advisers serving pools limited to specified sophisticated investors, and would increase the capital-contribution limit for the existing small-pool exemption to reflect inflation. The proposal is intended to reduce duplicative CFTC and SEC regulation; independent market commentary indicates that the initiative builds on recent CFTC no-action relief for qualifying private-fund managers and may reduce registration and reporting burdens if the proposed conditions are satisfied.
Key dates
2026-08-18
CFTC announced publication of a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking concerning amendments to Part 4 CPO and CTA registration requirements.
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to obtain and review the full Federal Register proposal, including the precise sophisticated-investor criteria, pool-level conditions, adviser eligibility requirements, proposed small-pool capital threshold, effective date, and transition provisions.
Firms should consider mapping each existing and prospective pool against the proposed CPO exemption conditions and each advisory mandate against the proposed CTA exemption conditions, without treating the proposal as currently available relief.
SEC-registered advisers may wish to compare the proposed exemption with their current CFTC registration status, CFTC Regulation 4.13 or 4.14 filings, Rule 4.7 reliance, and any applicable CFTC staff no-action relief.
Small-pool operators should consider recalculating eligibility using the proposed inflation-adjusted capital-contribution threshold once the precise amount is published and assessing whether existing offering, subscription, and compliance controls would continue to demonstrate compliance.
Affected firms may wish to assess whether to submit comments within 45 days after Federal Register publication, particularly on investor definitions, treatment of derivatives and swaps, aggregation rules, recordkeeping, reporting, and coordination with SEC adviser requirements.
Firms relying on existing exemptions or no-action letters should continue meeting their current conditions and filing obligations unless and until a final rule or separate relief changes them.
Legal and regulatory inventories may be updated to cross-reference CFTC Regulations 4.5, 4.7, 4.13, and 4.14, the Commodity Exchange Act, and the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.
What changed
The CFTC issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking proposing amendments to Part 4. The proposal would add a CPO registration exemption for certain investment advisers registered with the SEC in connection with commodity pools whose participants are limited to specified sophisticated investors and that satisfy additional conditions set out in the proposal. It would add a related CTA registration exemption. It would also increase the capital-contribution threshold applicable to the existing small commodity pool exemption under CFTC Regulation 4.13 to account for inflation.
Compliance impact
This is a consultation rather than a binding change, so existing CPO and CTA registration, exemption, notice-filing, recordkeeping, and reporting obligations remain in force. If adopted, the amendments could materially reduce duplicative registration and related compliance costs for qualifying SEC-registered advisers, private funds, CTAs, and small pools, but eligibility will depend on detailed conditions not included in the press release.
Notice of proposed rulemaking. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC" or "Commission") is proposing new rules and amendments to its existing regulations for futures commission merchants ("FCMs"), swap execution facilities ("SEFs"), designated contract markets ("DCMs"), and derivatives clearing organizations…
AI Analysis
The CFTC issued a proposed rulemaking on affiliations and conflicts of interest for FCMs, SEFs, DCMs, and DCOs, with a comment deadline of 2026-10-05. The proposal is aimed at perceived and potential conflicts created by affiliated relationships, including affiliated FCMs, affiliated principal trading firms, and affiliates that participate in or influence market regulation functions.
Key dates
2026-08-06
CFTC published the proposed rule in the Federal Register at 91 FR 50926.
2026-10-05 Deadline
Public comments on the proposal must be received by this date.
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to review current affiliate structures involving FCMs, SEFs, DCMs, DCOs, and trading affiliates to identify where the proposal would create new disclosure, surveillance, or conflict-management obligations.
Firms may wish to map any shared personnel, technology, office space, or information flows between affiliated entities and assess whether additional controls would be needed to protect regulatory impartiality.
Market-regulation and legal teams may wish to assess whether existing board, committee, and disciplinary-panel processes would satisfy the proposed independence and conflict-management expectations.
FCMs may wish to inventory current disclosures to customers and counterparties and determine whether additional affiliate-relationship disclosures would be needed if the rule is finalized.
Affected entities may wish to prepare comment letters before the 2026-10-05 deadline if they want to influence the final scope of the proposal.
What changed
The proposal would amend CFTC regulations in Parts 1, 37, 38, and 39, including regulations 1.52 and 1.55, to strengthen oversight of affiliated entities. For FCMs, it would add requirements around disclosure of affiliate relationships with SEFs, DCMs, or DCOs, and it would adjust SRO and DSRO financial-surveillance requirements for affiliate FCMs.
Compliance impact
The proposal is significant because it would impose new structural and disclosure expectations across several core CFTC-regulated entity types and could require changes to governance, surveillance, and affiliate-management processes. The CFTC frames the rule as necessary to address perceived and potential conflicts of interest and to protect the impartiality of SRO and SRO-like functions.
The CFTC has issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) to amend Part 37 (SEFs), Part 38 (DCMs), Part 39 (DCOs), and regulations 1.52 and 1.55 to address **affiliations and vertically integrated structures** among CFTC‑regulated entities and market participants. The proposal is explicitly aimed at managing **actual and perceived conflicts of interest** in affiliated structures (e.g. exchange/clearinghouse/intermediary/market‑maker combinations) through principles‑based rules that preserve responsible innovation while reinforcing market integrity.
Key dates
TBD (est. late 2026 / 2027)
- Potential adoption of final rules on affiliations requirements, depending on the volume and content of comments and Commission deliberations
TBD (mid‑2026) Deadline
- Federal Register publication date of the NPRM on affiliations (the comment deadline will run for 60 days from this publication; firms should monitor the Federal Register and CFTC website to confirm the exact date)
30 July 2026
- CFTC issues press release announcing the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on affiliations among CFTC‑regulated entities and indicates that comments will be accepted for 60 days following publication in the Federal Register
TBD (60 days after Federal Register publication)
- End of public comment period on the proposed amendments to Parts 37, 38, 39 and regulations 1.52 and 1.55 concerning affiliations and vertically integrated market structures
Suggested considerations
Identify and map all affiliate relationships involving CFTC‑regulated entities within your group (DCO, DCM, SEF, FCM, SD/MSP, trading entities, market makers) and document how roles and control relationships could create actual or perceived conflicts of interest.
Conduct a gap analysis of existing governance, conflicts‑of‑interest, information‑barrier, and supervision frameworks against the anticipated principles‑based expectations for vertically integrated structures under Parts 37, 38, 39 and regulations 1.52 and 1.55.
Review and, where necessary, enhance board‑level and committee‑level oversight arrangements for affiliated entities to ensure independent decision‑making on listing, clearing, rule enforcement, membership, and client treatment where affiliates are involved.
Assess current customer risk disclosures, including those required under regulation 1.55 for FCMs, to determine whether affiliate relationships and related conflicts are adequately described, and prepare draft revisions that could be implemented if the new requirements are finalized.
Engage legal, compliance, and business stakeholders for each affected entity (DCO, DCM, SEF, FCM, trading entity) to prepare a coordinated comment letter to the CFTC explaining operational impacts, potential unintended consequences, and recommendations on specific rule language.
What changed
- Introduces principles‑based requirements for vertically integrated market structures involving affiliations between derivatives clearing organizations, designated contract markets, swap execution...
Amends Part 37 to set additional governance, conflict‑management, and structural requirements for swap execution facilities where the SEF is affiliated with an intermediary or trading entity.
Amends Part 38 to impose enhanced conflict‑of‑interest and self‑regulatory safeguards for designated contract markets that are affiliated with futures commission merchants or proprietary trading...
Amends Part 39 to clarify and strengthen requirements on derivatives clearing organizations in group structures where the DCO is affiliated with intermediaries or other market participants, including...
Amends regulation 1.52 (accounts and records; FCM supervisory requirements) to reflect the heightened expectations placed on futures commission merchants that are part of vertically integrated...
Compliance impact
Non‑compliance with the eventual affiliation rules is likely to be treated as a significant governance and market‑integrity issue, potentially affecting registration, examinations, enforcement exposure, and the viability of vertically integrated business models. Firms with complex group structures should treat this as a high‑impact regulatory development, with particular consequences for exchanges, clearinghouses, SEFs, and FCMs that rely on affiliated market‑making or intermediation.
Request for comment; extension of comment period. On June 25, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("Commission" or "CFTC") published in the Federal Register a request for comment ("RFC") titled "Request for Comment on the Extension of Standard Futures Contracts to 24/7 Trading and on Perpetual Contracts…
AI Analysis
The CFTC has extended the public comment period for its June 25, 2026 request for comment on 24/7 trading of standard futures contracts and on perpetual contracts referencing physically delivered or storable energy commodities. The new deadline is August 26, 2026, and the Commission also added a specific request for comment on CME NYMEX’s self-certified 24/7 crude oil contract that the CFTC stayed on July 9, 2026.
Key dates
2026-06-25
CFTC published the original request for comment in the Federal Register at 91 FR 38334
2026-07-08
CME NYMEX self-certified a 24/7 oil contract
2026-07-09
CFTC stayed the self-certified 24/7 oil contract
2026-07-28
CFTC published the extension of the comment period at 91 FR 47158
2026-08-26 Deadline
Extended comment deadline for the request for comment
Suggested considerations
Compliance teams may wish to assess whether existing trading, clearing, settlement, surveillance, and customer-protection controls would function on a 24/7 basis.
Firms may wish to review the CFTC’s additional questions on the stayed CME NYMEX crude oil contract and consider whether their comments should address execution, settlement, market integrity, and operational resilience issues.
Market participants may wish to prepare data-driven comments, because the CFTC’s consultation is focused on factual and empirical input rather than conclusory policy statements.
Firms considering perpetual or around-the-clock products may wish to map any dependencies on payment systems, margin processes, and holiday/weekend operational support before submitting comments.
What changed
This publication does not impose a new binding rule; it extends the comment deadline for an existing request for comment by 30 days. The underlying consultation covers two issues: whether standard futures contracts, including energy futures, can trade on a 24/7 basis without changing expiration, delivery, or settlement terms, and whether perpetual contracts referencing physically delivered or storable energy commodities should be permitted.
Compliance impact
The practical impact is moderate but broad for energy derivatives and exchange-traded products: the CFTC is signaling active scrutiny of 24/7 trading models and perpetual contracts, especially where physical delivery or storability of the underlying commodity is relevant. The extension gives firms more time to submit comments, but the consultation itself indicates the Commission is evaluating possible risks around liquidity, price formation, surveillance, clearing, settlement, and customer protection.
The CFTC has extended by 30 days the public comment period on its targeted Request for Comment (RFC) covering (i) extension of **standard futures contracts (including energy futures) to 24/7 trading** and (ii) **perpetual contracts referencing physically delivered or storable energy commodities**. This extension signals that the Commission intends to build a more complete record on market structure, risk management, and investor protection before setting a regulatory framework, and compliance teams in energy and derivatives markets now have additional time to shape that framework and align their controls with emerging expectations.
Key dates
22 June 2026
- CFTC issues the targeted request for comment on extending standard energy futures to 24/7 trading and on the listing of perpetual contracts referencing physically delivered or storable energy commodities
26 July 2026 Deadline
- Original 30‑day comment deadline for the RFC on 24/7 trading and energy perpetual contracts (now superseded by the extension)
26 August 2026 Deadline
- Extended deadline for submission of public comments on the RFC regarding 24/7 trading of standard energy futures and perpetual contracts referencing physically delivered or storable energy commodities
Suggested considerations
Identify and convene an internal cross‑functional working group (trading, risk, operations, compliance, legal, and IT) to assess potential impacts of 24/7 trading and energy perpetual contracts on your firm’s business model and control environment.
Perform a gap analysis of current trading, clearing, surveillance, margin, and risk management frameworks against the operational and risk expectations articulated in recent CFTC staff advisories and policy statements on 24/7 markets and perpetual contracts.
Draft and submit a data‑driven comment to the CFTC by 26 August 2026 addressing the RFC questions most relevant to your activities, including empirical analysis of liquidity, price formation, manipulation risk, funding rate behavior, and customer protection in energy derivatives.
Review and update internal policies and procedures for trade surveillance, market abuse monitoring, and manipulation detection to address continuous 24/7 trading windows and any contemplated use of energy perpetual contracts.
Assess whether current staffing models, systems support, and incident‑response processes can support 24/7 trading or clearing operations, and document enhancements or mitigations that would be needed to maintain operational resilience.
What changed
- The CFTC has extended the comment deadline on the RFC regarding 24/7 trading of standard futures contracts and perpetual contracts in energy markets by 30 days, moving the due date to 26 August...
The RFC focuses on the extension of standard futures contracts, including energy futures, to a 24/7 trading schedule while keeping fixed expirations but allowing potentially material economic changes...
The RFC separately focuses on the listing and regulation of perpetual contracts that reference physically delivered or storable energy commodities, such as crude oil, and that have no fixed...
The Commission has added additional questions to the original RFC to probe market integrity, price formation, operational resilience, customer protections, and risk management implications of 24/7...
The RFC builds on and is informed by the CFTC’s May 29, 2026 coordinated actions on perpetual contracts and 24/7 trading in digital commodities, including the Policy Statement on perpetual contracts,...
Compliance impact
Non‑compliance with eventual CFTC expectations and rules around 24/7 trading and perpetual energy contracts could result in denial of product listings, enforcement action for inadequate risk controls or misleading disclosures, and heightened supervisory scrutiny. Early alignment with the RFC themes and proactive engagement with the CFTC will reduce regulatory risk and position firms favorably as the framework solidifies.
Joint CFTC-SEC request for public comment on harmonizing portfolio margining frameworks across securities and derivatives markets. This is informational/consultative content seeking stakeholder input on potential regulatory alignment regarding margin requirements, risk management, and cross-product offsets.
The CFTC has proposed amendments to Parts 15, 16, and 17 to establish a new reporting regime for certain covered event contracts, including a new **§16.03 “Covered Event Contracts”** provision. If adopted, the rule would require relevant market participants to report these contracts under the Parts 15 through 18 framework rather than under selected reporting provisions in Parts 38, 39, 43, and 45, making this a material compliance redesign for firms active in event contracts.
Key dates
2017
- Staff no-action letters began providing the interim reporting approach for certain fully collateralized event contracts
TBD (est. late 2026)
- The proposal will proceed through the public-comment process and could later be finalized, subject to Commission action
13 May 2026
- CFTC staff issued a no-action letter regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping for event contracts, reinforcing the temporary relief framework
25 June 2026
- The CFTC published the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking seeking public comment on amendments to Parts 15, 16, and 17
Suggested considerations
Firms that list, clear, intermediate, or report covered event contracts should inventory all event-contract products and map each product to the current reporting regime and the proposed Parts 15 through 18 framework.
Compliance teams should identify all reporting fields, systems, and workflows currently relying on Parts 38, 39, 43, or 45 for event-contract reporting and assess whether those processes would need redesign.
FCMs, clearing members, and foreign brokers should review their data governance and source-of-truth controls to ensure they can produce the reporting elements required under §16.00, §16.01, Part 17, and Part 18 if the proposal is adopted.
Firms should track the public-comment process and prepare comments if the proposed framework creates operational gaps, duplicated reporting, or ambiguities in product scope.
Market participants should review reliance on existing no-action letters and prepare contingency plans for a transition from interim relief to a codified rule.
What changed
- The CFTC proposes an alternate reporting framework for certain fully collateralized event contracts, replacing reliance on certain reporting provisions in Parts 38, 39, 43, and 45 with reporting...
The proposal would amend Part 15, Part 16, and Part 17 of the CFTC’s regulations.
The proposal would add a new §16.03 titled “Covered Event Contracts” to Part 16.
The proposal would require reporting pursuant to §16.00, §16.01, Part 17, and Part 18 for covered event contracts.
The proposal would apply to reporting by certain reporting markets, futures commission merchants, clearing members, and foreign brokers.
Compliance impact
The compliance impact is moderate to high because the proposal could require firms to re-engineer reporting architecture, amend procedures, and retest controls for event-contract data submission. Non-compliance after final adoption could expose firms to CFTC supervisory findings, reporting deficiencies, and possible enforcement risk if required data are not reported correctly or on time.
Joint CFTC-SEC request for public comment on derivatives product definitions and jurisdictional clarification under Dodd-Frank Title VII. This is informational guidance seeking stakeholder input on swap definitions, mixed swaps, and emerging products.
Joint CFTC-SEC request for public comment on harmonizing swap and security-based swap data reporting frameworks. This is informational content seeking stakeholder input on modernizing reporting requirements, data quality standards, and operational complexity reduction.
CFTC request for information on regulatory barriers for fintech partnerships with federally regulated institutions. Focuses on streamlining processes and facilitating innovation in derivatives/trading and payments sectors. Informational RFI with 21-day comment period; no immediate compliance deadline.
The CFTC is proposing to revise its whistleblower award framework to make smaller awards more predictable by presuming a **30% award rate for claims of $5 million or less**, subject to Commission judgment. This is a significant compliance development because it aligns more closely with SEC whistleblower methodology and may encourage more whistleblower submissions tied to Commodity Exchange Act violations, increasing the need for firms to detect issues early and respond quickly.
Key dates
11 June 2026
- The CFTC published the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking seeking public comment on amendments to its whistleblower rules
TBD (30 days after Federal Register publication)
- The public comment period closes 30 days after the NPRM is published in the Federal Register
TBD (after comment review)
- The CFTC may finalize, modify, or withdraw the proposal after reviewing public comments
Suggested considerations
Review whistleblower intake, escalation, and investigation procedures to ensure the firm can identify potential CEA violations before they become external whistleblower submissions.
Update training for front office, operations, compliance, and management personnel on CFTC whistleblower protections and the increased incentive structure.
Assess whether confidentiality, reporting, and non-retaliation controls are sufficiently documented to withstand scrutiny if a whistleblower complaint arises.
Reconfirm that internal policies do not discourage employees from communicating with the CFTC or otherwise create retaliation risk.
Monitor the Federal Register publication date and decide whether the firm, trade association, or counsel should submit a comment during the open comment period.
What changed
- The CFTC proposes a 30% presumption for whistleblower awards of $5 million or less.
The presumption remains subject to Commission discretion and application of relevant regulatory factors.
The proposal is modeled on SEC Rule 21F-6(c) to further harmonize CFTC and SEC whistleblower frameworks.
The CFTC says the change is intended to improve the efficiency, transparency, and predictability of award processing.
The proposal would affect how the CFTC’s Whistleblower Office evaluates award claims under Part 165.
Compliance impact
The practical impact is moderate to high because the proposal raises the attractiveness of reporting to the CFTC and may increase the likelihood of externally originated enforcement matters. Firms that fail to maintain strong internal reporting channels, prompt investigations, and anti-retaliation safeguards face higher risk of enforcement, litigation, and reputational harm if a whistleblower report is filed.
The CFTC has issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) to amend Regulation 40.11 and add Appendix F to Part 40 to create a **structured, time‑bound framework** for reviewing event contracts that may involve the activities enumerated in CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C) (terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or unlawful conduct). This proposal matters because it will formalize how the CFTC determines whether such event contracts are **contrary to the public interest** and therefore cannot be listed or cleared by CFTC‑registered entities, with particular consequences for prediction markets and sports, political, and other “gaming” event contracts.
Key dates
10 June 2024
– Earlier CFTC NPRM on event contracts was published in the Federal Register as “Event Contracts; Proposed Rule, 89 FR 48968,” later withdrawn on 06 February 2026; the new NPRM effectively replaces that initiative with a more targeted framework
06 February 2026
– CFTC formally withdrew the 2024 Event Contracts proposed regulatory action (91 FR 5386), clearing the path for the current, more targeted NPRM on enumerated activities
12 March 2026
– CFTC issued an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets and a staff advisory to DCMs, launching a broader process to develop a tailored regulatory framework for prediction markets
30 April 2026 Deadline
– Comment deadline for the March 2026 prediction‑markets ANPRM, which this NPRM is described as addressing in part and which may lead to additional rulemaking
10 June 2026
– CFTC announces the new NPRM on amendments to Regulation 40.11 and addition of Appendix F to Part 40 regarding event contracts involving enumerated activities
Suggested considerations
Map and inventory all existing and planned event contracts listed or cleared through CFTC‑registered entities to identify those that may “involve” terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or conduct unlawful under federal or state law.
Conduct a legal analysis of how the proposed definitions of “involve” and “gaming” would apply to your current product set, particularly sports, political, entertainment, and other contest‑based contracts, and document the rationale.
Review and update internal product‑approval and new‑contract listing procedures to incorporate the proposed 90‑day CFTC review process, including timelines, documentation standards, and decision gates tied to Section 5c(c)(5)(C).
Develop or update written policies and controls to ensure that contracts potentially involving enumerated activities are escalated for legal, compliance, and regulatory‑affairs review before submission to the CFTC.
For DCMs and SEFs, enhance product‑submission templates to clearly address the proposed Appendix F public‑interest factors, including description of the underlying event, potential for unlawful activity, market integrity risks, and consumer‑protection considerations.
What changed
- The NPRM would amend CFTC Regulation 40.11 to embed a formal analytical framework for assessing whether an event contract involves an activity enumerated in CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C) and, if so,...
The NPRM would add Appendix F to Part 40 to set out the factors, tests, and procedural steps the Commission will apply when reviewing specific event contracts referencing enumerated activities.
The proposal would define key statutory terms, including at minimum “involve” and “gaming,” to clarify when an event contract is considered to touch an enumerated activity under CEA Section...
The NPRM would establish a 90‑day review process for the Commission to evaluate event contracts that may implicate enumerated activities, including procedural protections such as notice, opportunity...
The proposed framework would codify public‑interest factors the Commission will apply when deciding whether a particular contract involving an enumerated activity is contrary to the public interest...
Compliance impact
Non‑compliance with the final rules emerging from this NPRM could result in the CFTC determining that listed or cleared contracts are contrary to the public interest, leading to forced delisting, enforcement exposure, and reputational damage for CFTC‑registered entities. The impact is particularly significant for firms whose business models rely on sports, political, and other “gaming” event contracts, as entire product lines may become impermissible if they are found to involve enumerated activities in a way that is contrary to the public interest.
This regulatory update from the CFTC and SEC proposes amendments to Form PF, the confidential reporting form for certain SEC-registered investment advisers to private funds. The changes aim to reduce reporting burdens for private funds, including raising filing thresholds and streamlining requirements.
The CFTC has issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) seeking public comments on potential amendments or new regulations for event contracts in prediction markets, focusing on statutory compliance, public interest prohibitions, and cost-benefit analysis. This matters for compliance professionals as it signals heightened CFTC scrutiny and forthcoming rules that could reshape prediction market operations, amid jurisdictional disputes and enforcement priorities. (https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26)
Key dates
April 26, 2026 Deadline
- Deadline for public comments (45 days after Federal Register publication; ANPRM published March 12, 2026). Comments via CFTC Public Comments Portal. (https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26)
Suggested considerations
Submit comments: Affected parties should prepare and file written comments within 45 days via the CFTC Public Comments Portal, addressing ANPRM questions on CEA principles, prohibited contracts, and costs/benefits.
Monitor developments: Track Federal Register publication, related litigation (e.g., state challenges to CFTC jurisdiction), and CFTC Enforcement Division advisories. (https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9183-26)
What changed
This ANPRM proposes no immediate changes, as it is an early-stage consultation seeking input on:
Application of Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) core principles and existing CFTC regulations to prediction markets.
Criteria for prohibiting event contracts deemed contrary to the public interest (e.g., potentially sports, politics, or sensitive topics like government employee outcomes).
Cost-benefit analyses for regulating prediction markets. It builds on prior actions, including withdrawal of a 2024 proposed ban on certain event contracts and a 2025 staff advisory on sports-related...
Compliance impact
Urgency: High - This ANPRM initiates rulemaking that could prohibit certain event contracts or impose new CEA compliance burdens, amid CFTC Enforcement Division advisories on misconduct (e.g., MNPI, manipulation) and jurisdictional defenses against states/SEC. Firms risk enforcement actions if unprepared, especially as prediction markets grow with institutional interest; proactive commenting and program reviews are essential to influence outcomes and mitigate risks.
This CFTC update relates to direct clearing by retail participants, which impacts capital markets firms and crypto exchanges that facilitate retail trading and clearing. It touches on authorization and licensing requirements as well as reporting and disclosure obligations.